Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Post AAB era

Am i nut ? Post AAB era ? AAB is still the PM now and UMNO Party election is at the end of the year!

If we look around, AAB is facing many "opposition" from within UMNO, as MD said before, there will be many in-fighting, and UMNO will be the most interesting of all among all the component parties in BN.

AAB today faces 4 major sources of threat, may be the most strongest "opposition" came from Dr. M. Dr. M has been in past few years requested AAB to "undur", stating he has chosen the "Wrong" one. And right after Mar 8,08, he had again requesting AAB to step down. Mukriz, Dr M's son, has emulate his father foot step, wrote a letter requesting AAB to step down, for losing the 12th GE. M influence in UMNO are still very strong, and it seems AAB has been pushed to admit that he is one of the factor that lead to 12th GE failure.

The second threat, from Ku LI and Muyiddin. Both of them are veteran in UMNO, have enough grassroot support. Both have in some way gesturing that they would seek election to be the party top leader. Ku Li might be a bit too old but dont discount him as he has 200,000 ex-46 members walking behind him, and he might also gain some others from existing UMNO member. Muyiddin, he was AAB supporters, but he seems to be agreeing that AAB should step down so that UMNO can be revamp easier. Now that Dr M has given up Najib for the PM post, if he plays the right card, he might be able to ride on the wave.

Third, from DSAI, it is still unclear at this point, will the 30 "jumpers" do the jump. DSAI/PKR/DAP/PAS would not want to miss out this opportunity and wait for another 5 years. And they definitely don't want the 2 previous "opposition" to take over AAB, as that will be harder for them to repeat the same victory after 5 years. So, i believe PR would do something as well to ensure the post would not falls into others' hand.

Fourth, from Najib, Najib would not want to see a PM from PR. As he will have hard time doing all the explaining. Though he might still be with AAB, but we would not know if he would change his mind later on, when (if) AAB seems to be losing out.

So it is not too early to look at post AAB era, right !? :).

if AAB steps down, if someone from PR becomes PM, it will make the entire BN to shiver. PR will have access to all documents and data. Many issues in questioning now, would be dealt with.

If Ku Li or Muyiddin becomes PM, then we can expect to see more and more Dr. M's influnce in the governing. I believe both will take his "advices" seriously. Would there be any Dr. M era ?

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